You’ve just spotted an RFP that looks like it was written for you. This WIRED Bid No Bid Federal Contracting Guide will help you decide if it’s worth pursuing before you spend a minute writing.
It’s on SAM.gov. It’s within your core competencies. The agency is one you’d love to work with. And the deadline is tight.
Your proposal team perks up. Your BD lead starts mapping win themes. But before you dive in, ask yourself one hard, crucial question:
Should you even bid?
In the Federal market, most losses don’t happen because the proposal was badly written. They happen because the bid decision was flawed from the start. Contractors chase opportunities that were never truly open to them, bid cold, and submit proposals with no shot—burning thousands of dollars and hours they’ll never get back.
Let’s fix that.
Whether you’re a seasoned prime or a small business still finding your footing, this article gives you a structured, field-tested way to make faster, smarter bid/no-bid calls—before you sink precious resources into a proposal with no payoff.
WIRED: A 5-Part Gut Check For Smarter Decisions
You may have heard—or even experienced—a situation where the winning vendor was clearly the one the buyer wanted all along. Maybe they’d already built trust, shaped expectations, or delivered results in the past. In industry conversations, that’s often described as a “wired” opportunity.
I use the term here as shorthand—not as an accusation. Contracting Officers are committed to fair and open competition, and go to great lengths to ensure it. Still, past performance, early engagement, and smart positioning can give one vendor a natural edge long before the RFP is published.
The WIRED framework is your gut-check tool. It helps you spot when a procurement may be influenced by prior relationships—so you can make smarter, faster decisions about where to focus your time and resources.
W – Who Wrote the RFP?
Some RFPs may seem like they magically align with a competitor’s offering. That’s often no accident.
Language in many Statements of Work originates from vendors—often in white papers, capability briefings, or informal drafts sent to the agency months in advance. When an agency is happy with a contractor’s past performance, they may quietly ask for “help” defining the next requirement.
Reality check: If the RFP’s terminology, structure, or requirements feel oddly specific—or if there’s jargon you’ve never seen before—it might not be yours to win.
Smart move: Download the RFP attachment and check the file properties. If the document author’s name matches a known competitor, that’s a major clue.
I – Incumbent Insight
Is there an incumbent? Are they still eligible? More importantly—are they still liked?
An underperforming incumbent might mean the agency is ready for a change. But if the current contractor is well-established, delivering on time, and in good standing, the buyer may be hesitant to switch horses mid-race.
Even when the incumbent isn’t rebidding, their ghost may linger. If they’ve shaped the requirement, worked closely with the client, or contributed to the performance metrics, you’ll be held to their standard.
Ask yourself:
- Who’s the incumbent?
- What do we know about their relationship with the agency?
- Can we demonstrate clear, superior value?
If you don’t have that information—or can’t beat it—you may be wasting your time.
R – Relationships
Have you talked to the buyer in the last 6 months? Has anyone from your team met with the end user, the program manager, or the CO? If the answer is no, that’s a red flag.
Relationships matter more than ever in federal sales. Cold bids rarely win—even if you meet the technical requirements.
Your competitors are having conversations behind the scenes, months before an RFP drops. If you’re learning about the opportunity from the posted solicitation, you’re already behind.
Better question: Who do you know in the agency? And what do they know about you?
E – Evaluation and Eligibility
This isn’t just about whether you can technically meet the requirements. It’s about whether the evaluation criteria play to your strengths.
Be alert for:
- Hyper-specific past performance
- Niche certifications or qualifications
- Requirements that seem to mirror a competitor’s offering
Ask:
- Are we really what they’re looking for?
- Or are we just guessing and hoping to get lucky?
If the RFP favors someone else, move on—or start building relationships now for next time.
D – Deadline Dynamics
Some solicitations are dropped late Friday afternoon. Others hit SAM.gov just before a long weekend. Still others pop up with no prior RFI, draft, or Sources Sought notice.
When that happens, ask: who knew it was coming?
If the opportunity is large, complex, and comes with minimal lead time—and you weren’t in the loop—someone else might be. The winning vendor may have had the scope, the staff, and even the proposal ready to go before you saw the posting.
If you didn’t see it coming, it’s probably not coming to you.
The Real Cost of the Wrong Bid
A typical full-scale Federal proposal effort can cost over $65,000—in labor, overhead, subject matter expert time, production, legal review, and BD hours.
Now add in:
- Lost time that could’ve been spent building new relationships
- Team burnout from chasing long shots
- Damage to credibility if you consistently bid and lose
- Morale-killing debriefs (“You didn’t understand the requirement”)
A proposal that never stood a chance doesn’t just waste money. It delays your next win.
Why Contractors Keep Saying “Yes” (Even When They Shouldn’t)
Contractors bid on long-shot opportunities for lots of reasons:
- “It’s close to our core offering”
- “It matches our set-asides”
- “We’ve got to be seen bidding”
- “Let’s just get on their radar”
- “If we don’t bid, someone else will”
Sound familiar? These rationalizations can cost you not just money, but credibility with your team and your buyers.
Here’s the truth: You don’t need to bid everything to grow in the Federal market. In fact, the opposite is true.
12 Warning Signs That Might Lead You To No-Bid
Use this checklist to spot trouble early. If two or more apply, pause and reassess.
- There’s an incumbent, and you know the buyers like their work.
- The set-aside was added or changed just before release.
- The RFP references technology that’s not yours.
- The Statement of Work is fuzzy, vague, or oddly specific.
- Key personnel requirements match someone else’s team.
- The past performance specs don’t resemble your résumé.
- The RFP dropped late Friday or before a holiday.
- This is a big project but there has been no Sources Sought, RFI, or presolicitation notice.
- You only just heard about it—and it’s already posted.
- File metadata lists a competitor as author.
- The NAICS code seems odd, or was changed at the last minute.
- You don’t know the buyer—and they don’t know you.
This list is just a quick snapshot. My full complimentary Bid/No-Bid Guide gives you more nuance about what each sign might mean—and what to do next if you spot it.
Download the Full Federal Bid/No-Bid Guide
Before your team spends another hour writing a proposal, get the toolkit that helps you make smarter, faster decisions—and protect your bottom line.
✅ 12 quick warning signs to spot bad-fit RFPs
✅ WIRED framework: assess relationships & readiness
✅ 94% accurate decision matrix
✅ Real-world costing worksheets
✅ Team discussion templates
What If You’re Asked To Bid– But Know You Won’t Win?
Sometimes, a Contracting Officer—possibly one you’ve never even spoken with—will reach out and ask you to submit a proposal on short notice. The opportunity might appear to align with your core capabilities and past performance. Sounds like great news, right?
Maybe. But maybe not.
It’s entirely possible that what the CO really needs is simply one more solid, responsive bid to round out the file. They may be short on offers, and while they’re required to demonstrate maximum practicable competition, the truth is they may already know who they want to award the contract to. You’re not likely to hear that outright—but if you’ve been in federal contracting long enough, you’ve probably seen the signs.
In these situations, you need to make a fast, clear bid/no-bid decision that balances both strategic business development goals and proposal resource protection.
Your top two goals in a situation like this are:
- To give the contracting officer what they need—a timely, compliant, and fair offer from a responsible vendor, and
- To get what you need—a step forward in building the relationship and staying in the game for future opportunities.
Here’s how to think it through:
First, ask: Is this agency already in your business development plan? Have you been investing time and energy into building relationships with the program office, small business specialist, or end users? If this is a customer you want to win more work with in the future, a minimal bid today may help advance that goal.
If the answer is no—and this isn’t a target agency for your capture strategy—it’s perfectly okay to decline. But whatever you do, never ghost the contracting office. Instead, respond formally. Thank them for the invitation, explain that you’re unable to bid on this opportunity, and express interest in staying informed about future requirements. After all, they reached out because they believed you were worth considering.
If the answer is yes, then a crash proposal effort may be worth it—but only with clear expectations. This is your chance to demonstrate responsiveness, readiness, and professionalism, even though you know your odds of winning may be low. It’s a relationship investment—not a revenue move.
That’s a hard place for a team to be—giving up evenings, weekends, and family time to build a proposal that may never be competitive. So be honest with your team. Let them know that this response is part of a longer game. Help everyone understand why this effort matters, and how it ties to future strategic wins.
Talented team members are hard to find—and harder to keep. Too many businesses burn out their best people by chasing every RFP in sight and racking up losses. Don’t be that company.
In this scenario, your proposal still needs to be fully compliant and responsive—and ideally, polished enough to make the contracting officer and evaluation team sit up and take notice. But be smart. Don’t overspend on a pursuit with low win probability. Submit a solid, professional offer that meets the need—but reserve your full-court press for when you truly have a shot.
Win or lose, always follow up. If it’s a FAR Part 15 procurement and you submitted a responsive proposal, you may be entitled to a formal debriefing. If not, request an informal post-award conversation. Ask what you could have done differently. Use the opportunity to learn—and strengthen the relationship.
And whether you lost or decided not to bid at all, reconnect after the award. One of my favorite clients shared that when she followed up with the CO, she started by congratulating them on awarding to the vendor they clearly believed was the right fit. What a gracious way to open the door—and build trust for next time.
When “No-Bid” Isn’t the End
Saying no doesn’t mean you disappear. In fact, “no-bid” often frees you up to:
- Follow up strategically: Use the contact info in the solicitation to start new relationships.
- Request a debrief: Even if you didn’t submit, ask what you could have done to be better positioned.
- Support the CO/KO: If you’re asked to bid for the sake of competition, do the minimum required—then ask for a one-on-one.
- Track the buyer’s patterns: Many requirements repeat annually. You could be next year’s obvious choice.
- Build early: Invest in relationships with the program office or small business specialist now.
Don’t Just Chase—Shape
The most successful contractors don’t chase. They shape.
Instead of responding to RFPs cold, they:
- Cultivate relationships in advance
- Deliver thought leadership that informs requirements
- Show up at events and in inboxes long before the buying cycle peaks
- Become the trusted vendor before the RFP is even written
You don’t need to bid– or win — everything. You need to bid what’s winnable, profitable, and aligned with your strategy.
Final Thought: Your Next Win Starts with a Smarter “No”
Most contractors are chasing too many bad-fit opportunities—and it’s costing them the ones they should win.
The companies that thrive in Federal contracting aren’t just better at writing proposals. They’re better at making decisions. They know when to walk away.
That kind of clarity doesn’t just improve your win rate. It protects your team. It builds trust. And it helps you show up with more power when the right opportunity comes.
Ready to Work Smarter?
📥 Download the Bid/No-Bid Guide
🗓 Book a Federal Business Breakthrough Call
Let’s make your next bid the one that wins.